Iowa Poll Recalculated: Palin Needs Just 5% Swing to Close Gap

PPP Sample: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 28% Independent

PollInsider Adjustment: 36% Republican, 34% Democrat, 30% Independent + Undecided voter Allotment (For Full methodology, see here)

The PPP Poll still oversample Democrats, but not as bad as in other polls they have done where oversapling has reached double digits. Iowa is a small swing state that Gore won in 2000 by less than 1%, followed by a similarly small victory by Bush in 2004, and a larger 10% victory by Obama in 2008. As the pendulum turns once again, the Republicans saw a shift back in their favor in 2010 and expect it to continue into 2012. However, this does not mean I am predicting a GOP Iowa win, only that it won’t be the big margin that was obtained 3 years ago.

Palin 45%, Obama 55% Obama +10

Romney 49%, Obama 51% Obama +2%

Pawlenty 48%, Obama 52% Obama +4%

The PPP poll shows a much more dramatic 20% victory for Obama over Palin, 9% over Romney, and 12% over Pawlenty. Plus 21% over Gingrich. When the poll numbers are recalculated, you see those leads diminish. While Palin sees a 10% deficit, the reality is she really only needs a swing of about 5% to pull even at 50-50.