PAKISTAN TESTS NEW TACTICAL NUKES

PAKISTAN TESTS NEW TACTICAL NUKES
Pakistan successfully tested a short range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads in May. According to the Pakistani army, the Hatf 9 missile “could carry nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy,” giving the country a potent weapon in any potential confrontation with its nuclear rival, India. The 37 mile flight range of the Hatf 9 suggests limited utility in attacking the Indian heartland, but nuclear expert Hans Kistensen worries that its potential use on the battlefield could “mean crossing the nuclear threshold early in a conflict.” It could also serve as an effective counter to India’s “Cold Start” military doctrine, designed to rapidly deploy forces into Pakistan for targeted strikes, particularly after a Mumbai-style terrorist attack. Pakistan is widely estimated to have the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world, with potentially more than 100 warheads in its arsenal. Experts have been voicing growing concerns in recent months about the safety of that arsenal, pointing to fears over Islamist sympathizers within the military, as well as the potential for militants to steal an operations warhead or fissile material. (The Atlantic June 2, 2011)

CHINESE LEADER VISITS MALDIVES BUT INDIA STILL #1
The Islamic archipelago known as the Maldives recently received the highest ranking Chinese official ever to visit the chain of 1192 coral islands, Mr. Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the People’s National Congress. The visit took place against the backdrop of an intensifying competition for influence in the Indian Ocean region between India and China. The Maldives sit atop important strategic sea lanes that fuel trade between East Asia and the rest of the world. However, despite the visit by Wu, which highlighted growing economic ties between China and the Maldives, Beijing is unlikely to challenge New Delhi’s dominant role in the island chain’s strategic space. When Tamil militants tried to stage a coup against President Abdul Gayoom in 1988, it was Indian troops who were dispatched to neutralize the force.

More recently, in late 2009, the Maldives accepted an Indian request to deploy 26 coastal radars to monitor its territorial waters and it was later revealed the Indian coast guard had been granted authority to patrol the Maldives territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 miles seaward from the country’s coastline. The current Maldivian president, Mohammed Nasheed, who unseated President Gayoom after a 30 year rule in 2008, puts the Maldives strategic priorities in clear terms: “There is not enough room in the Indian Ocean for other non-traditional friends. We are not receptive to any installation, military or otherwise, in the Indian Ocean, especially from un-traditional friends. The Indian Ocean is the Indian Ocean.” (The Jakarta Post June 17, 2011)

NO SIGN OF PROGRESS ON U.S.-INDIA MILITARY PACTS
When India floated a $10 billion tender for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft a few years ago the U.S. hoped New Delhi would select one of the American planes on offer -- the F-16 or F-18 – to serve as a cornerstone in the burgeoning U.S.-India defense partnership. U.S. officials were devastated when the two planes were knocked out of the competition this spring (two European-made fighters made the final cut), and now it looks as if there is more disappointment to come. On the eve of the next round of the U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue, India is showing no signs of interest in moving forward on three military pacts the U.S. has been pushing for years. These are the Logistics Sharing/Support Agreement (LSA), the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA).

New Delhi is concerned the agreements will disproportionately benefit the U.S. and are uneasy about the appearance of formalizing their military alliance with America, despite the surge in defense cooperation and arms sales in recent years. Washington has countered that not signing the deals complicates practical military cooperation and prevents America from selling India military platforms with its most advanced technology. (The Hindu June 23, 2011)

TROUBLING SIGNS IN THE AFGHAN NORTH
Northern Afghanistan, largely populated by the non-Pashtun ethnic groups that oppose the Taliban, has long been considered the safest enclave in this war torn country. However, as the Obama administration unveils its plans to withdraw 33,000 troops by the fall of 2012, there are troubling signs that northern Afghanistan is slipping into violence; a stark contrast to the recent progress made rolling back Taliban influence in the south and east. Last winter, Baghlan, Takhar, and Kunduz provinces were all “cleared” of Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents. However, security officials say the Taliban, and allied groups like the Haqqani network and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan are entering this traditionally inhospitable territory in force this spring and summer, while coalition forces are focused elsewhere. The development is particularly troubling given region is strategically vital to the Coalition war effort, as a major supply line through Tajikistan passes through Kunduz and Baghlan. One of the Taliban’s fiercest opponents in the north, senior police general Daud Daud, was killed last month along with the police chief of Takhar province. At his memorial service an Afghan told the BBC “The Taliban are spreading like wild fire” and warned that taking a main road in the north you were “guaranteed a Taliban ambush.” Afghan security forces are set to begin taking over responsibility for select cities in the north this July. (BBC June 8, 2011)