Millions of households are at risk of power black-outs within three years because coal stations are being replaced with wind farms, the energy watchdog has said.
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| Britain faced potential power shortages in the next four years, Ofgem warned. In its strongest ever warning, Ofgem said there may have to be “controlled disconnections” of homes and businesses in the middle of this decade because Britain has not done enough to make sure it has enough electricity. The regulator's new analysis reveals the risk of power-cuts is almost 50 per cent in 2015 if a very cold winter causes high demand for electricity. It predicts Britain will face power shortages because old coal and oil plants are being forced to shut down under the European Union’s environmental regulations. This will partly be replaced by wind farms, but they are less reliable and can only generate electricity in the right weather conditions. Ofgem believes the lack of spare power generation “could lead to higher bills”, which are already at record high of £1,300 per year. The report will be a blow to Ed Davey, the new Energy Secretary as sweeping reforms in the new Energy Bill will come too late to avoid the squeeze in 2015 – the year of the next election. Whitehall sources said there is very little the Government can now do to avoid the risk of black-outs in the middle of the decade. It will take around three or four years to build any new gas plants and it would be very difficult to build more coal plants under European rules. “It may be that we will sail through the danger period without any problems,” the source said. “But if things do start to go wrong, we may be in trouble.” Alistair Buchanan, chief executive of Ofgem, said Britain's energy system is struggling under the pressure of the “unprecedented challenges” of a global financial crisis, tough environmental targets and the closure of ageing power stations. Currently, Britain has 14 per cent more power plant capacity than is strictly necessary to keep the lights on. However, this crucial buffer will fall to just four per cent by the middle of the decade. Its report shows the risk of power-cuts begins to increase sharply from next year onwards. There is a near-zero threat of black-outs this year. However, this rises to a one-in-12 chance by 2015 if demand stays at normal levels. The threat goes up to a one-in-four chance if too much power is exported to Europe and one-in-two if there is very high demand. Ofgem said that in case of shortages "industrial demand will be disconnected first, then household demand if the former is not sufficient". John Robertson, an MP on the energy committee, called on the Government to make contingency plans and make sure there is extra gas in storage. “We have been warning of this problem since 2002 and now it is too late,” he said. “All the coal stations will have gone by 2015 and because we’ve dragged our feet for so long on nuclear, there won’t be anything to replace them. “It will only be a problem if there’s a really bad winter across Europe but we have to plan for that.” Last night, Mr Davey said the Government will “consider carefully the implications” of Ofgem’s warnings. “Security of electricity supply is of critical importance to the health of the economy and the smooth functioning of our daily lives. “That is why the Government is reforming the electricity market to deliver secure, clean and affordable electricity.” A spokesman for the Department for Energy and Climate Change admitted there is a chance of power cuts but said it is “only a very low risk to householders”. “We would like to see slightly larger margins and this is why we’re acting to bring more investment forward,” “Investment is already coming forward. New gas fired power stations at Pembroke and West Burton are just coming online. Angela Knight, chief executive of Energy UK, the lobby group that represents big power companies, said the regulator is “right to highlight some of the challenges” in the electricity market. source: uk telegraph |
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