Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Live Blog: Midterm Elections 2014

11/04/2014

 LIVE BLOGGING NOW
BOB PEARSON
Amid a number of tight races, Republicans still appear poised to capture a Senate majority for the first time in eight years, an achievement that would give the GOP control of Congress and increased leverage to push ahead on policy aims. Here is our live blog of the voting.
  • Just in: AP and networks project Republican Mitch McConnell has won the Senate race in Kentucky.
    • 6:59 pm
    • Polls Closing in Georgia, Kentucky and Virginia
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    Polls are about to start closing en masse in the next few minutes, setting the stage for official results to start trickling in from places like Georgia, Kentucky, and Virginia. While there’s some expectation the Georgia Senate race between Republican David Perdueand Democrat Michelle Nunn could end up in a runoff, both parties have said they have a chance to eclipse the 50% threshold that will avoid a Jan. 6 runoff vote.
    • 6:56 pm
    • A Less-Rural Electorate
    • by Dante Chinni
    The early exit polls show a 2014 electorate that is much less rural than its 2010 counterpart. The rural vote tends to be the most reliably Republican in the urban/suburban/rural breakdown pollsters use.
    The percentage of voters from urban and, particularly, suburban areas looks like it will be higher tonight that it was four years ago. The suburban vote also looks like it will make up a bigger portion of this electorate than it did in 2012 and may wind up contributing more than half of the votes in 2014.
    • 6:50 pm
    More last minutes calls from Democrats. 
    • 6:49 pm
    • Kanye West Urges Citizens to Vote
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    Superstar Kanye West joined in the last minute calls for voters to hit the polls Tuesday evening on Twitter, telling his 10.9 million followers to not miss their chance to weigh in on the midterms. His Twitter followers may be listening: within the first 30 minutes, one tweet was retweeted more than 7,000 times:
    • 6:39 pm
    • Spending on 2014 TV Ads? So Much Money
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    One of the biggest stories of the 2014 midterms has been how much money candidates, outside groups and the national parties have spent to sway voters. Spending on TV ads in federal and gubernatorial races reached $1.19 billion, which covered the airing of 2.2 million ad airings, according to an analysis of Kantar Media/CMAG data by the nonpartisan Wesleyan Media Project. Read more here.
    • 6:36 pm
    • 6:24 pm
    • Polls Start to Close in Kentucky
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    Getty Images
     
    Democratic Senate candidate and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes after she cast her vote at Pleasant Green Baptist Church on Tuesday in Lexington, Ky.
    We’re in the 6 o’clock hour, which means polls have started to close in some parts of Kentucky, the site of the very closely watched race between Senate Minority LeaderMitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes. Mr. McConnell is favored in the race but Dems are holding out hope they can knock off the top GOP senator. The rest of Kentucky’s polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern.
    • 6:21 pm
    • VIDEO GUIDE
    • by Sloan Dickey and Natalie Andrews
    A video guide — what’s happening at 7 p.m. and through the night.
    • 6:07 pm
    • What to Watch
    PROGRAMMING NOTE: We expect to get the first tallies in tight races no earlier than 7 p.m., when polls close in Georgia and the western part of Kentucky. Here’s how the schedule looks for states with contested Senate races, in Eastern Standard Time:
    7 p.m.: Georgia, Kentucky, Virginia
    7:30 p.m.: West Virginia, North Carolina
    8 p.m.: Kansas (but some precincts don’t close until 9 p.m.), New Hampshire
    8:30 p.m.: Arkansas
    9 p.m.: Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, South Dakota
    10 p.m.: Iowa, Montana
    1 a.m.: Alaska

    • 6:03 pm
    • More From Hawaii
    • by Caroline Porter
    At Pahoa, Hawaii, some voters said turnout was light.
    “The only problem is not enough people voting,” said Shane Turpin, a business owner and resident in the area, soon after he exited a polling station. “There was no hindrance of voting on my side to vote, and I haven’t heard of any issues [due to the lava],” he said by phone.
    There are several races to watch in the heavily Democratic state. Aside from the race for governor and House seats, U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz is fighting for his Senate seat against Republican candidate Cam Cavasso. A tropical storm in August had thwarted some residents in their attempts to vote, and a makeup election was held.  

    • 6:01 pm
    • In Hawaii, Lava Isn’t the Problem, Some Say
    • by Caroline Porter
    A lava flow from Kilauea Volcano threatens the town of Pahoa –EPA/Bruce Omori/Paradise Helicopters
    Election Day in the coastal village of Pahoa, Hawaii, is business as usual, despite the threat of lava creeping out of an active volcano on the Big Island.
    Four traditional precincts in the area are open for voting, and the lava flow has not cut access to any of the normal polling places, according to a county official.  Early last week, lava flowed closer to the village, destroying a potting shed and a cattle shelter and forcing officials to put about 40 households on alert. Since then, the leading edge of the lava has slowed down, and the lava has instead expanded to the sides.
    • 5:56 pm
    • Watch the Deadline
    The Alison Lundergan Grimes campaign urges late voters to make it to the polls. Ms. Grimes, a Democrat, is an underdog in her race against Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. 
    • 5:53 pm
    • 2014 Ballot Initiatives
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    While the battle to control the Senate and gubernatorial races tend to receive the most attention, a number of states and localities have some interesting ballot initiativesthat voters must decide on when they go to the polls. In Alaska, Oregon and here in the District of Columbia, voters are deciding on whether to legalize the use of marijuana, while in Florida they’re weighing whether to allow medicinal use of the drug.
    A number of states are also weighing increases in the minimum wage, including to $8.50 an hour in Arkansas, $10 in Illinois, and $9.00 in Nebraska, among others. Other ballot initiatives include background checks on gun sales and a “personhood” amendment in Colorado.
    • 5:50 pm
    • Early Reads
    • by Dante Chinni
    Reuters
     
    Tea-party supporters in June.
    TEA PARTY READ: The early exit polls indicate that the 2014 electorate was much less supportive of the tea party movement  than 2010’s voters were. The polls also suggest that fewer voters in 2014 than 2010 were casting their votes specifically to send a message that they opposed President Barack Obama. The largest group of voters said Mr. Obama wasn’t a factor in their vote.

    • 5:47 pm
    • Will 2014 Give Clues to 2016?
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    An election judge helps a voter cast his ballot at the Su Nueva Laundromat in Chicago. — Brian Kersey/Getty Images
    For political operatives and politicians, one of the more valuable takeaways from the 2014 midterms will be the insights they can glean about the electorate going into the 2016 race for the White House. Any signals that key battleground states are moving more Democratic or Republican will be important as politicos start to position themselves in the coming months. While the electorate in a midterm tends to differ from a presidential election, any details on voter behavior or the success/failure of get-out-the-vote operations could be valuable. Click here to read more.
    • 5:44 pm
    • ‘She Learned Her Lesson. But It Might Be Too Late’
    • by Jennifer Levitz
    Ms. Coakley, who is the attorney general of Massachusetts and is now running against Republican Charlie Baker for the governor’s post, has run a far more energetic campaign this time around. Ms. Snyder pointed out by way of a compliment that Ms. Coakley sounded hoarse on Tuesday morning news shows.
    “She learned her lesson,” Ms. Snyder said. “But it might be too late.”
    But on the other hand, Ms. Coakley’s new approach had voter Karen Coughlin feeling optimistic.
    Ms. Coughlin, a 56-year-old nurse, saw a more appealing candidate in this campaign, particularly when Ms. Coakley spoke publicly for the first time about her brother’s suicide nearly 20 years ago as she pledged to improve services for the mentally ill.
    “I think people did get to see a side of her that they didn’t in the last race,” Ms. Coughlin said as she headed into vote.
    • 5:41 pm
    • Voting for Martha Coakley, Begrudgingly
    • by Jennifer Levitz
    Associated Press
     
    Massachusetts Democratic gubernatorial candidate Martha Coakley at a campaign event Monday.
    If Martha Coakley is looking for unbridled enthusiasm from the Democratic base to push her to victory in the governor’s race, it won’t come from party activists like Deborah Snyder.
    “I did vote for Martha—I’m just still a little ticked off at her,” Ms. Snyder, 57, said outside Mansfield High School, a polling place in Mansfield, Mass., a southeastern suburb of Boston.
    Ms. Snyder, the treasurer of the Mansfield Democratic Town Committee, illustrates the hangover that still lingers for some voters from Ms. Coakley’s surprising loss to Scott Brown in the 2010 U.S. Senate race. Democratic activists accused of her not working hard enough to beat Mr. Brown.
    • 5:29 pm
    • Obama on the Air
    • by Jeffrey Sparshott
    OBAMA AS RADIO STAR: President Obama quietly hit the airwaves just ahead of the election, calling in to more than a dozen radio shows. Mr. Obama dialed up some big markets in tight races, including North Carolina and Milwaukee, alongside some easier contests for Democrats. According to the White House, Mr. Obama on Tuesday spoke with Reggie Brown in the Afternoon at WKKV  in Milwaukee, Frankie Darcell at WXMD in Detroit and WDAS in Philadelphia, Rick Party in the Afternoon at WHQT in Miami and The Colin McEnroe Show at WNPR in Hartford. On Monday, he chatted with The Frank Ski Show at WHUR in the D.C. area, Earl Stokes in the Afternoon at WJMR in Milwaukee, The Konan Show at WERQ in Baltimore, UB Rodriguez at WGCI in Chicago, No Limit Larry in the Morning at WPEG in Charlotte, Mildred Gaddis Show at WCHB in Detroit, Artie and Fly Ty in the Afternoon at WBAV in Charlotte, Mike and Friends in the Morning at WFMI in Elizabeth City, N.C., The 3 Live Crew at WJMH in Greensboro, N.C., and The Larry Young Morning Show at WOLB in Baltimore.
    • 5:26 pm
    • White House Says No Referendum From Midterms
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    Drew Angerer
     
    Obama, photographed in June.
    Meanwhile, the White House is trying to convince Americans that today’s election isn’t a referendum on the president. “Ultimately it’s these governors or these candidates whose record is on the ballot,” spokesman Josh Earnest said. “There is ample data to indicate that the vast majority of voters across the country are making decisions in this election based on the candidates themselves and not on President Obama.” Of course, if Republicans win big, they’re likely to say the election was a repudiation of the president’s leadership.
    • 5:24 pm
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
     
    President Barack Obama and IMF Director Christine Lagarde
    President Barack Obamais keeping a fairly low profile on election day. Aside from an interviews with radio stations, the president is going about a normal day’s work. Today, that includes lunch with Vice President Joe Biden and meetings with IMF Managing DirectorChristine Lagarde, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and officials handling the administration’s Ebola response. 
    • 5:22 pm
    • Who’s Showing Up to Vote?
    • by Dante Chinni
    Turnout will likely be the key element in the results tonight. Democrats tend to do better with higher turnout. So as the numbers come out, don’t just look at who’s up and who’s down. Keep an eye on whether the number of votes and turnout percentages look more like 2010 results, which were good for Republicans, or 2012 results, which put PresidentBarack Obama back in the White House.
    • 5:16 pm
    • Complicated Senate Math
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    Who will control the Senate is the biggest question of the night, but there’s a chance we might not know before politicos and voters tuck themselves in after the 1 a.m. close of polls in Alaska. The chance of runoff elections in Louisiana and Georgia, the slow process of counting votes from the wilds of Alaska, and the potential for an independent to win in Kansas could all mean we don’t know which party is in power for weeks if not months. Here’s more on that.
    • 5:15 pm
    • Tonight’s Schedule
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    ERIK S. LESSER
     
    Georgia Democratic US Senate candidate Michelle Nunn
    My colleagues here at the WSJ have done a great job putting together some viewing guides and astep-by-step scheduleof what we’re looking at for tonight. but here are some of the major deadlines I’m keeping an eye on as we start the evening.
    First up, the polls close at 7 p.m. in Georgia, Virginia and Kentucky (Half the state closes at 6 p.m., the other half is in Central Standard Time). These will be our first chance to look at actual voter data coming in and when we could get our first inklings of how the night could progress.
    After that, between the 7:30 poll closing in North Carolina and 8 p.m. in New Hampshire we could get a good sense of how the GOP effort to take back the Senate and Democrats’ defense of the majority is going. Wins by Sen. Kay Hagan (D., N.C.) or Jeanne Shaheen (D., N.H.) don’t guarantee Dems will retain control, but early losses in either state could signal a good night for the GOP.
    Later in the night, 9 p.m. will be the next major set of poll closings we’ll be keeping an eye on. Polls in Colorado, Louisiana, parts of Kansas and South Dakota all close then, which could give us some good insight on important Senate and governor’s races.
    • 5:11 pm
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    Second, how do the many tight governor’s races shake out? Will there be a wave against incumbents, and how will it affect the 2016 presidential race?
    Finally, are there any major themes or sentiments that emerge from the electorate that could change the thinking of Democrats and Republicans?
    • 5:11 pm
    • Big Questions
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    As we wait for the first polls to close at 6 p.m., and the first results at 7 p.m., here are the three biggest questions I have going into the night:
    First, which party will control the Senate when the dust settles? A no-brainer, but given the opportunity for Republicans to shake up the political landscape in Washington for the final two years of President Obama’s presidency, it’s on everyone’s mind.

    • 5:10 pm
    • Welcome to the Election Live Blog
    • by Michael R. Crittenden
    European Pressphoto Agency
     
    A voter in Kansas.
    Hey everyone, welcome to the Wall Street Journal’s coverage of Election Night 2014! Tonight’s the night we finally find out the results of the billions of dollars in campaign ads, polling and countless hours of voter outreach candidates have been doing around the clock for months. We’re coming to you live from the WSJ’s Washington HQ, where my talented colleagues and I will be providing you all the news, analysis and fun campaign tidbits you need to make it through the evening.
    To see the latest poll numbers and make your own predictions for the balance of power in the Senate, go here: http://graphics.wsj.com/balance-2014/


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