Prepare to meet thy moneymaker!
Introduction
In an analysis titled "A Looming Super Power Clash Triggered by Pakistan" (published on February 15, 2011), we pointed out to the rapidly growing danger of a U.S.-Pakistan clash which will involve – in addition to the Unite States, China and Pakistan – India, Russia, NATO powers, and other powers in the region.[1]
In the past few months, the U.S.-Pakistani relations further deteriorated into an open sabotage of the CIA work in Pakistan by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
On May 17-20, 2011, this process took an escalating turn with the visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani to China. The China visit was described by Pakistan's Information and Broadcasting Minister Dr. Firdous Ashiq Awan as "historical" and one that "would certainly open a new chapter in China-Pakistan relations under the new international environment and historical conditions."[2]
Gilani's four-day China visit acquired an unprecedented international importance in the wake of the May 2, 2011, killing of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a U.S. operation in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad.
Pakistani leaders saw bin Laden's killing in a unilateral U.S. operation as a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty and national dignity, while U.S. politicians and media suspected that there was complicity on the part of the Pakistani military's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in providing the Al-Qaeda leader with a safe hideout for years in Abbottabad, right next to a Pakistani military academy.
Amid this explosive situation, the Gilani visit was seen as a move to protect Pakistan from possible measures taken by the U.S. against it and to undercut the U.S. and Indian influence in the region, which is perceived by Pakistan as a years-long threat to Pakistan's national security. While Pakistan and China have been long-standing allies, a fundamental shift can now be observed in their strategic relationship, which is characterized by bolstering their military and other relations and by the huge rupture in Pakistani-U.S. relations.
This analysis reviews the multi-dimensional elements of the rapidly growing alignment of Pakistan with China to face an anticipated stand-off – and even an open armed clash – with the U.S./India.
The Military Dimension
a) Chinese Commitment to Defend Pakistan
Pakistan is now engineering a seismic shift in its overall relationships by aligning itself with China to counterbalance the U.S. and India. China, on its part, also expressed its own interest in aligning with Pakistan.
After the Abbottabad operation, which indicated that there might have been Pakistani government/ISI complicity in hiding bin Laden, Pakistan feared that the U.S. could carry out a similar unilateral operation targeting the Pakistani nuclear installations.[3] China was the first country, and perhaps the only one, to express its support for Pakistan's stability. Soon after the Abbottabad operation, China "indicated it will... back its long-term strategic ally's efforts to maintain stability."[4]
During Gilani's visit, China gave indications of how it is willing to underwrite Pakistan's sovereignty and stability. According to a May 19, 2011, Pakistani daily report, "China... warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China..."[5] The report, citing highly placed diplomatic sources in Beijing, noted: "Beijing has advised Washington to respect Pakistan's sovereignty... and this was formally conveyed to the United States at last week's China-U.S. strategic dialogue and economic talks."[6]
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who was in Washington for the U.S.-China talks in mid-May 2011, conveyed the Chinese "feelings" to the U.S., and this point was disclosed by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself during his two-hour-long formal talks with Prime Minister Gilani at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.[7]
b) Air and Naval Cooperation
During Prime Minister Gilani's visit, China agreed to "immediately" provide Pakistan with 50 new JF-17 Thunder multi-role fighter planes for Pakistan's air force.[8] Although this agreement for these fighter planes was signed earlier, Islamabad and Beijing are also discussing the supply of J-20 Stealth and Xiaolong/FC-1 multi-purpose light fighter aircraft to Pakistan.[9]
In recent years, joint Pakistani-Chinese naval cooperation has strengthened, involving a contract with China to build four warships that will carry missiles and heavy weapons.[10] The first Chinese-built F-22P Frigate was inducted into the Pakistan Navy in July 2009.[11]
The Chinese frigates, which are medium-sized warships, are equipped with surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles and anti-submarine helicopters. Admiral Noman Bashir, the Chief of Pakistan Navy, has stated that Pakistan hopes to buy bigger ships with more firepower from China, such as 4,000-ton class frigates.[12]
In an interview with China Daily in July 2010, Admiral Bashir said: "The friendship between China and Pakistan is greater than the Himalayas and deeper than the Ocean. We already made progress in air force and other areas, now we should further and expand the cooperation in Navy, a broadly-based relation."[13] He also commented on the expansion of Pakistan's naval cooperation with China, stating: "We [Pakistan Navy] can provide facilities, ports, logistics, maintenance among other things..."[14]
During Gilani's May 17-20 visit, Pakistan asked China to build a naval base at Gwadar, in addition to the commercial port there. Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar, the Pakistani defense minister who accompanied Gilani to China, said: "we would be more grateful to the Chinese government if a naval base was... constructed at the site of Gwadar."[15]
The Pakistani defense minister also commented on the nature of Pakistan-China relationship, stating: "China is an all-weather friend and the closest ally of Pakistan, and it could be judged from the fact that in whichever sectors Pakistan requested assistance during... [Prime Minister Gilani's] recent visit to China, they immediately agreed."[16]
According to a Pakistani daily report, "China is the main arms supplier to Pakistan..."[17]
c) Deployment of Chinese Troops in Pakistani Kashmir
In 2010, international media reports revealed that more than 11,000 Chinese troops have been stationed in Gilgit Baltistan, an ethnically different region in Pakistan that had traditionally been part of Jammu & Kashmir. Chinese military engineers have previously helped Pakistan, but this time the Chinese soldiers are building concrete residential houses and are opening branches of Chinese banks.[18]
In 2011, it was revealed that the presence of the Chinese troops is not limited within Gilgit Baltistan but they have moved into Pakistani Kashmir along India.
In May 2011, Indian intelligence agencies reported that they have "credible evidence" that Chinese troops are also based in the Pakistani side of Jammu & Kashmir, which is divided by the Line of Control (LoC) between Pakistan and India.[19]
The website of The Times of India daily reported that several hundreds of Chinese working in Pakistani Kashmir are engineers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China while the Indian intelligence agencies are "verifying if these Chinese military engineers are engaged in some sort of military construction like bunkers."[20]
A warning was issued in April 2011 by Lt.-General K. T. Parnaik, the Commander of the Indian Army's Northern Command (which oversees Kashmir), that India faces a threat from the Chinese troops based in Pakistani Kashmir who could be deployed on the Line of Control against India.[21] This is perhaps the first time that a serving Indian Army general has publicly voiced concern over a Chinese military threat to India in Kashmir.[22]
d) The Chinese Military Interest Geared against the U.S. in Af-Pak Theater
While the deployment of Chinese troops in Pakistani Kashmir is understandable in view of past rivalries and wars between China and India, the Chinese military interest in the Pakistani-Afghan border and in the routes through which American supplies go to Afghanistan shows that the Chinese interest is also geared against the U.S.
The Chinese military leadership has recently been assessing the implications of a likely U.S. military incursion into the Pakistani tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, which so far had not been of any strategic interest to China.
In October 2010, a high-level delegation of the Chinese Army visited the Landikotal Army Garrison in Khyber Agency. The Chinese team comprised five high-ranking officials led by Director General of the People's Liberation Army Major General Yan Hu.[23]
Commenting on the importance of the Chinese military team's visit, an October 29, 2010, report in The News daily stated: "The delegation stayed in Landikotal for several hours amid tight security. All the link roads and Torkham Gate were blocked to the public. NATO supply remained suspended during the delegation's visit to [nearby] Michini Checkpost."
e) China Funding Pakistani Nuclear Knowhow
Over the past few decades, China has funded and has technologically supported the Pakistani nuclear program.
On May 12, 2011, Pakistan's third nuclear electric power plant went operational. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, while inaugurating the Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Unit-1 (CHASNUPP-2), located near Chashma Barrage on the left bank of River Indus, 32 kilometres south of the town of Mianwali, paid tributes to China's support. "Today is a proud day for Pakistan and for Pakistan's civil nuclear energy program... It is yet another illustrious example of the Pakistan-China cooperation in the field of nuclear science and technology," Gilani said.[24]
Two more nuclear plants, C-3 and C-4, are already under construction at the site.[25]
India has expressed concern that the Pakistani nuclear strategy is aimed at building low-yield, tactical nuclear weapons which can be used in case of skirmishes at the Pakistani border with India.
A May 19, 2011, Indian media report warned that Pakistan is building its fourth reactor at the Khushab military facility and Pakistan has now acquired the capability to add 8-10 such nuclear weapons every year.[26]
"The figure [regarding the Pakistani nuclear weapons] is likely to go up considerably once the new reactor becomes operational in less than two years. Latest satellite images revealed recently that Pakistan has expedited work on the fourth reactor, a plutonium producing facility," the report said.[27]
S. D. Pradhan, former chief of India's joint intelligence committee, who has closely monitored Pakistan's nuclear-weapon program, commented on the Pakistani drive to produce plutonium bombs, stating: "They are following the Chinese model of having low-yield nuclear weapons. Pakistan believes these weapons will provide it a flexible response in case of an escalation with India..."[28]
f) Chinese Radars for Pakistan
After the killing of bin Laden, Pakistani media reports had indicated that Pakistan's radar system was jammed by the U.S. in order to carry out the operation. During Gilani's visit, China offered to upgrade Pakistan's radar system and satellite technology.[29]
During a visit to the China Academy of Space Technology in Beijing on May 20, the Pakistani prime minister was briefed on the latest Chinese radar systems and satellite technology; and it is expected that Pakistan would get 10 state-of-the-art radar systems and satellite technologies.[30]
g) Cooperation in Satellites & Missiles
According to a Pakistani media report, the two countries have also agreed to step up work on Pakistan's satellite currently being built in China, which is scheduled for launch on August 14, 2011, the Independence Day of Pakistan. The satellite will supply "multifarious data" to Pakistan.[31]
Pakistan claims that its missile program is developed indigenously, though the missile technologies are thought to have been provided by North Korea, a Chinese ally.
On April 29, 2011, Pakistan conducted a successful flight test of the cruise missile, Hatf-8. The nuclear-capable Hatf-8 (Ra'ad) missile, which has a range of over 350 kilometers, has been developed exclusively for launch from aerial platforms.[32] According to a report, the cruise missile has stealth capabilities and is a low altitude, terrain-hugging missile with high maneuverability.[33]
Earlier that month, Pakistan also conducted the first test of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile Hatf-9 (Nasr).[34]
The Economic Dimension
a) Integration of Pakistani Economy with China
China is investing in all sectors of the Pakistani economy on a major scale. Pakistan has also expressed its goal to align the Pakistani economy with China.
During Gilani's visit, the two countries explored ways of bolstering economic ties, including the establishment of the trans-border economic zones, instituting integrated border management systems, and working together on the intra-regional and trans-regional economic and development agenda, corporate sector interaction in joint projects, opening of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) branches in Pakistan, finalization of the currency swap arrangement, and more.
In Beijing, Prime Minister Gilani stated that Pakistan will be forging deeper economic engagement with China. Gilani said that Pakistan is determined to take all necessary measures for closer economic integration with China, stating: "The free trade agreement, the joint five-year economic program, the joint investment companies and the ongoing cooperation in the financial and banking sectors, great interaction between our capital markets, robust defense and defense production cooperation are but a few example of the direction that our strategic cooperation partnership has taken."[35]
b) Boosting Bilateral Trade in Short Term
Pakistan and China are rapidly boosting their economic ties and bilateral trade.
As per statistics presented in May 2011 before the National Assembly (the Lower House of the Pakistani Parliament), between March 2005 and December 2010, China collaborated in six different projects worth $2.7 billion, providing technical and financial support.[36] The two countries are now pressing ahead in the areas of trade, banking, ports, roads, and railways.
In 2010, the total volume of Pakistan-China trade rose by $2 billion to approximately $8.7 billion.[37] Compared to 2009, a 37 percent jump was seen in Pakistani exports to China year on while Chinese exports to Pakistan increased by 28 percent.[38]
During his China visit, Prime Minister Gilani said that measures are being implemented to increase Pakistan's trade volume with China to $15 billion a year by 2013.[39]
c) Pakistan's Encouragement of Chinese Investment
Pakistan is encouraging Chinese investments in different areas of the Pakistani economy and is seeking incentives for Pakistani businessmen in China, notably in the Kashgar Special Economic Zone, which is a few hundred kilometers from Pakistan's border.
In May 2011, a 50-member Chinese economic delegation led by Muhametmin Yashen (Muhammad Amin Yasin), the Deputy Director General of the Standing Committee of the People's Congress of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, visited Islamabad. In the Pakistani capital, Pakistani leaders advised the Chinese team that China could tap the one-trillion dollar Halal foods industry by providing special incentives to Pakistani businessmen to invest in the Kashgar Special Economic Zone.[40]
Pakistani business leader Raza Khan told the Chinese delegation that they should explore opportunities in sectors like finance, banking, power, alternative energy, information technology, engineering goods, textile machinery, agriculture, agro-based industry, food, fruit processing, packaging, livestock, dairy farming, and real estate sectors.[41]
c) China Gives $1.7 Billion Loan for Lahore's Rail System
The Export-Import Bank of China recently agreed to give Pakistan a loan of $1.7 billion for the development of a train system in Lahore. Khawaja Ahmed Hassan, chairman of the Lahore Transport Company, said: "The bank agreed to lend us the money with a two-year grace period, and our aim is to get it at 6% interest."[42]
It should be noted that Lahore is the capital of Punjab, the most influential Pakistani province, whose government cancelled six agreements with the U.S. in the fields of health, education, and waste management in protest against the Abbottabad operation.[43]
The Diplomatic Dimension
During Prime Minister Gilani's visit to Beijing, China's top leaders expressed support for Pakistan in the wake of the Abbottabad operation. At his meeting with Gilani, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced that China is sending a special envoy to Islamabad to express solidarity with Pakistan at this crucial period in its history.
On May 19, 2011, Jia Qinglin, the chief of the powerful Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), declared that Pakistan will never be left in the lurch and the strategic cooperation between the two countries will be taken to new heights. "No matter how the global situation may change, the resolve and determination of the government and the people of China in developing its friendly relations with Pakistan will never be swayed," Jia Qinglin said at a reception held in honor of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.[44]
Noting that China has always given priority to developing cooperation with Pakistan, Jia Qinglin said, "China will stand together with Pakistan to seize the opportunity presented by the 60th anniversary [celebrations of bilateral ties]. We want to carry forward our tradition of friendship in all areas of our strategic partnership and cooperation and take our bilateral ties to a higher plane."[45]
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, during his meeting with Gilani in Beijing, assured Pakistan of China's "all-weather friendship," stating: "I wish to stress here that no matter what changes might take place in the international landscape, China and Pakistan will remain forever good neighbors, good friends, good partners and good brothers... I do believe that this visit will give a strong boost to the friendship and cooperation between our two countries and take that friendship and cooperation to a new high."[46]
Implications for the U.S., India, Afghanistan
a) The U.S.
Pakistan's bolstering of its relations with China is aimed at countering the U.S. influence in the region. Pakistan's highest defense forum, the Defense Committee of the Cabinet (DCC) which met under Prime Minister Gilani on May 12, 2011, reviewed its relations with the U.S. in the wake of the Abbottabad operation, which it called a "violation of Pakistan's sovereignty" and agreed to redefine Pakistan's cooperation with the U.S. "in accordance with Pakistan's national interests and the aspirations of the people."[47]
Among those who attended the meeting were: Senior Minister for Defense Production Ch. Pervaiz Elahi; Finance Minister Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh; Interior Minister Rehman Malik; Information and Broadcasting Minister Dr. Firdous Ashiq Awan, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Khalid Shamim Wynne, Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman, Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir, Defense Secretary Lt. Gen. (retired) Syed Athar Ali, and other senior officials.
According to a report in the Urdu-language daily Roznama Ummat, the top Pakistani military leadership has decided to teach the U.S. a strong lesson.[48] The report said that a decision to this effect was taken at a meeting at the General Headquarters of Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi, following which the military officials met with Pakistani President Asif Zardari and other civilian government leaders to apprise them of their thinking.[49]
The decision to teach the U.S. a strong lesson could be the Pakistani Army's realignment with China. However, it could also be a provocative move on the part of Pakistan with Chinese backing to damage America's position in South Asia, and potentially against India and Afghanistan. Such a provocation could trigger a super power clash.[50]
b) India
India's civilian and military leaders have consistently expressed concern over the deepening military ties between Pakistan and China, as well as over the deployment of Chinese troops inside Pakistani Kashmir, a territory claimed by India. India fears that its security is undermined by China's military support to Pakistan, both in Kashmir and against mainland India.
On May 19, 2011, Indian Defense Minister A. K. Antony expressed concern over China's decision to "immediately" provide 50 new JF-17 Thunder multi-role warplanes, stating: "It is a matter of serious concern for us. The main thing is, we have to increase our capability..."[51]
In mid-May 2011, Lieutenant-General K. T. Parnaik, Commander of the Indian Army's Northern Command, warned against "deep collaboration in weapon delivery" between Pakistan and China.[52] He also spoke of China's strategic moves in Pakistan, stating: "China is helping Pakistan in building a road from the Khunjerab Pass [on Chinese border with Pakistan] to Gwadar Port besides other infrastructure projects like dams very close to the Line of Control (LoC)."[53]
In a recent article, former Indian Army chief General (retired) V. P. Malik warned that Pakistan and China are articulating "joint interest" against India. He stated: "Though the Chinese army would not point guns towards our posts on the LoC [Line of Control in Kashmir], the fact that they are there reflects their 'joint' interest and enhancement of strategic and operational preparedness on the LoC along with Pakistan."[54]
India is reassessing the altered threat matrix in the wake of the Pakistani-Chinese defense collaboration. At a recent meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Indian Army Chief General V. K. Singh presented a three-pronged strategy to counter China's growing presence in the Tibet Autonomous Region and in Pakistani Kashmir. The strategy calls for a dedicated mountain strike corps, significant enhancement in the army's tactical airlift capability, and improvement in the border infrastructure along the border with China.[55]
India has also expressed concern over the support of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to the Taliban in Afghanistan, especially the Haqqani Network. It fears that with China supporting the Pakistani military establishment, efforts to defeat the Taliban-led terrorism in Afghanistan may not succeed, especially after the U.S. withdraws its troops from Afghanistan.
c) Afghanistan
Afghanistan is too weak a state to articulate its independent position on growing military and non-military relations between China and Pakistan, whose support to the Taliban militants has been the cause of terrorism in Afghanistan over the past few decades.
As a result of Chinese-Pakistani military collaboration, the interests of Afghanistan as well as the U.S. and Indian interests in the country could be adversely affected, especially in view of the Pakistani military's use of the Taliban organizations as strategic assets working in the interests of Pakistan.
Parallel to the ISI-backed Taliban surge in terror attacks in Afghanistan, the Pakistani government has mounted a diplomatic offensive in Kabul.
On April 16, 2011, almost the entire top Pakistani leadership arrived in Kabul to hold bilateral talks with the Afghan government. Among those who came to the meeting were: Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik, Pakistani Junior Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, Pakistani Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar, as well as Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and Lt.-Gen. Shuja Pasha, the chief of Pakistani military's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), whose involvement in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks has come up before a New York court.
During the day-long talks, it was decided to establish a two-tier Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Commission, an unprecedented move that facilitates the presence of Pakistan Army chief General Kayani and ISI chief Lt.-Gen. Shuja Pasha on the commission, enabling them a greater role in molding Afghanistan's internal affairs and foreign policies. It was perhaps the first time that the Pakistani military has formally managed to embed itself in a mechanism that allows it to shape the future of Afghanistan.
According to an Afghan media report, some of the written demands made by Prime Minister Gilani at the meeting included: "Pakistan should be consulted on the training and number of Afghan forces; Pakistan's share in Afghan mines and development projects should be cleared; implementation of Pakistani strategies in future governments in Afghanistan, recruitment of Pakistani cadres in the [Afghan] government institutions [should be ensured]; and Pakistan should be kept aware of any sort of agreement between Afghanistan and its Western allies, including the U.S. and NATO..."[56]
Of all these demands by Pakistan, Gilani's demand to appoint Pakistani officials in Afghan government institutions is a Pakistani attempt to undermine Afghanistan's independence in the long run. It should be noted here that during the Taliban rule, some Pakistani nationals worked in the Taliban-led Afghan government institutions.
These demands reflect a clear intention on the part of Pakistan to subjugate Afghanistan to Pakistani rule. Following the April 16 talks, Afghan analysts accused Pakistan of violating diplomatic norms by demanding major concessions from Afghanistan. According to a report in the Pashtu-language Khedmatgar Wrazpanra, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani told President Karzai that the U.S. has been defeated in the region and so it is better for Pakistan and Afghanistan to prefer China as a strategic ally in the region.[57] According to the report, Gilani also said that it is better for Afghanistan not to allow a long-term presence of the U.S. forces in the country.[58]
According to another report on the Afghan website shamshadtv.tv, former Afghan politician Sulaiman Layaq commented on the Pakistani strategic move in Afghanistan, stating: "Pakistani government supposes Afghanistan as a Pakistani colony..."[59]
This escalation in the Pakistani state's behavior towards Afghanistan contains all the elements and dangers of a direct clash between Pakistan and Afghanistan; and as a result, almost inevitable triggering of a larger-scale clash in which even a single spark could involve all the regional and international powers present in the South Asian region.
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