Voters are fairly evenly divided over whether they want to give President Obama a second term in the White House.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that the president currently earns support from 45% of Likely Voters across the nation, while a Generic Republican attracts 43% of the vote. Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Consistent with the results in 2008, Obama handily wins among voters under 40, the Republican wins among voters over 50, and 40-somethings are fairly evenly divided. The Republican candidate does best among middle-income voters, while the president is stronger among those who are in both upper-income and lower-income categories. Male voters are evenly divided, but women give a slight edge to the incumbent.
Eighty-four percent (84%) of Democrats prefer the president, while 81% of Republicans support the generic candidate from their party. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41% support Obama, and 38% are ready to vote Republican. One challenge for the president at this time is that the number of people who consider themselves Democrats today is down significantly from the fall of 2008.
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The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted on May 2-7, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The notion of a competitive election in 2012 is reinforced by the president’s job approval ratings. Over the past 18 months, Obama’s overall ratings have generally and consistently hovered around the 47% mark. There have been occasional bounces in the ratings to top 50% and occasional declines to the low 40s. But the overall trend is an amazingly stable perception of the president despite an enormously volatile political environment. The president’s vote total on Election Day in 2012 will probably be very close to his job approval total at that time.
Other indicators suggesting the election could be close if held today include the fact that the president attracts between 42% and 49% of the vote against all prospective Republican candidates. Additionally, on the Generic Congressional Ballot, Republicans continue to hold a modest advantage.
It is important to note that results could change dramatically over the next year-and-a-half, particularly as perceptions of the economy change. The president currently receives good marks for his handling of national security issues following the killing of Osama bin Laden but weaker reviews on the economy.
Perception of personal finances have tumbled over the past two-and-a-half years. On the night before Lehman Brothers collapsed, 43% of Americans rated their own finances as good or excellent. That fell to 35% by the time Obama took office. Currently, just 31% rate their finances in such a positive manner. Rasmussen Reports updates these figures and overall levels of consumer and investor confidence on a daily basis.
Voters currently trust Republicans more than Democrats when it comes to the economy.
However, when it comes to the fiscal policy issues surrounding the federal budget, voters are skeptical about both sides and overwhelmingly believe that nothing significant will be accomplished before the 2012 election.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.
The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted on May 2-7, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
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