Even if he wins his home state, Santorum could walk away without delegates

Not Penn. pals

Even if he wins his home state, Santorum could walk away without delegates
By Dan Hirschhorn Thursday, March 15, 2012

As Rick Santorum desperately tries to make a dent in Mitt Romney’s formidable delegate lead, he faces an unlikely obstacle on the primary calendar: his home state of Pennsylvania.

Yes, Santorum is currently favored — though hardly a lock — to win the popular vote in the state he represented in Congress for 16 years.

But Pennsylvania’s non-binding primary rules for distributing delegates raise the prospect that Santorum, who has said he’ll win the vast majority of the state’s delegates, could actually come away from next month’s primary empty-handed at a time when he can ill-afford it.

Which means the April 24 primary could represent yet another chance for Romney — who kicked off his Pennsylvania campaign this week by trotting out supportive Republican leaders — to finally deal Santorum a knockout blow.

“Winning the state doesn’t mean you get the delegates,” said Alan Novak, a former state GOP chairman who’s supporting Romney. “Most of the delegates will be political professionals, and it’s not their first rodeo.”

The problem for Santorum springs from the fact that potential delegates in Pennsylvania run on a primary ballot uncommitted to any presidential candidate — meaning voters won’t know who they’ll support at the convention this summer.

Traditionally, state Republican leadership has exercised enormous sway in getting its own members and supporters elected to delegate slots.

Interviews with about two dozen Pennsylvania Republicans and a review of the delegate candidates brings Santorum’s challenge into focus.

The ranks of delegate hopefuls are littered with Republican state committee members, elected officials and others with close party ties, who will ultimately be more beholden to a state party leadership that, while officially neutral, is visibly leaning in Romney’s direction and increasingly vocal in its fear that Santorum could hurt the party in a general election — especially after witnessing his 18-point drubbing in 2006.

Romney, Ron Paul and even Newt Gingrich got some of their supporters on the ballot as delegate candidates. But Santorum’s campaign officials, who have struggled with ballot organization issues across the country, privately concede that they just didn’t have the time, nor resources, to organize their own supporters to run as delegates when the paperwork was due earlier this year.

“At this point the delegate candidates are lined up everywhere but with Rick,” said Charlie Gerow, a longtime GOP strategist supporting Gingrich.

The state party has so far not made an endorsement in the race. But Bob Asher, a Republican National Committeeman and one of the most powerful forces in state politics, is backing Romney. So are top party fundraisers and members of Congress from the Philadelphia suburbs who, like many elected and party officials, worry that a Santorum candidacy would send independents fleeing from the GOP and damage their prospects in down-ballot races.

“I think most people recognize we have to put forward the best candidate to beat Barack Obama,” said Rep. Jim Gerlach, a suburban congressman and Romney backer who’s also a delegate. “There’s a lot of support to make sure Gov. Romney is ultimately our nominee.”

Added a top Republican fundraiser who’s neutral in the race: “People like Rick, and they often like his policies. But his brand is so tarnished and we’re all terrified at the prospect of him on top of the ticket.”

After the primary, elected delegates would gather and decide whom to support — and in past cycles party leadership has had a heavy hand in swinging the vote how it wants.

Gov. Tom Corbett would also likely enjoy significant sway over the delegates. While he hasn’t endorsed, he’s a politically cautious animal and Republicans familiar with his thinking say that, barring a tectonic shift in the race, he’ll almost certainly push for Romney.

“People feel good about Rick, they’re happy he’s worked very hard, but I haven’t felt a lot of pressure on people on state committee to get involved for him,” said state GOP chairman Rob Gleason, echoing the widespread surprise among Pennsylvania Republicans that Santorum has made it this far.

It remains to be seen how much Romney will invest in the so-called “beauty contest” of a Pennsylvania primary that doesn’t directly award delegates. Sources close to the Romney campaign said the prospect of delivering a death blow on Santorum’s home turf has been discussed, but senior Romney strategists didn’t return messages seeking comment.

Delegates aside, several Republicans stress that despite his comfortable lead in recent state polls, Santorum could still end up losing the popular vote to Romney once paid advertising takes its toll — something that would be impossible for Santorum to spin as anything less than an embarrassment.

His reputation remains strong with social conservatives and evangelicals, but those voting blocs hold much less sway than in the states Santorum has won, or even in states like Michigan that he barely lost.

“I think his standing with conservatives is still very strong, but I don’t think there are enough staunch conservatives,” said a neutral Republican operative who spoke anonymously to preserve relationships in both camps.

Meanwhile, many tea party activists and fiscally focused Republicans harbor bitter feelings for Santorum’s endorsement of the moderate Sen. Arlen Specter in 2004 and his love affair with earmarks.

“There’s a lot of resentment over that,” said Don Adams, president of the pro-Romney Independence Hall Tea Party PAC. “While no candidate running has a perfect background, being from Pennsylvania and having voted for Rick three times, I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that I or other tea party folks would like to see as president right now.”

Former Rep. Phil English, a Santorum friend who’s backing Romney, gave voice to many in the party establishment who remember Santorum fondly but think his time has passed.

“I think Rick Santorum is credited with being a hard-working senator who was loyal to the party,” English said. “Having said that, I think his catastrophic loss in 2006 with unified party support and an enormous amount of money demonstrated to most Republicans that he had lost touch with the voters of Pennsylvania and had really lost his appeal.”

Santorum backers, and even some neutral Republican observers, don’t buy that Santorum is in danger of losing his home state.

“I think his relationship with the primary voter here is actually building as the primary goes on,” said Rep. Lou Barletta, who endorsed Santorum. “They’re seeing that Rick Santorum is a fighter, even if they don’t agree with everything he says.”

“The original Santorum base has been re-energized,” added Jeff Coleman, a former state lawmaker and longtime ally of the hometown candidate. “Santorum’s presence in the campaign has done a lot to humanize the candidate and reintroduce the Santorum family.”

It also remains to be seen if attack ads from Romney or his super PAC will be as effective with an electorate that already knows Santorum.

For its part, Santorum’s campaign is readying itself for the same onslaught the candidate has had to endure elsewhere since emerging as a GOP contender — and tempering expectations.

“Romney will come in and spend millions and millions of dollars, and he’ll be very organized in Pennsylvania,” chief Santorum strategist John Brabender said. “We hope by then that the conservative vote will be unified behind Rick.

“This thing is going on a couple more months,” Brabender added. “We’re going to make sure we’re not living or dying by one particular state anymore.”