Romney has a 20-point advantage among white voters. Obama is supported by 91% of black voters and 57% of other minority voters.
A third of Americans favor a ban on all television political advertising. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, says the data “suggests many Americans view political campaigns and political advertising as a form of civic pollution.” Just 43% believe American elections are fair to voters.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
The president’s support has stayed between 43% and 45% for ten straight days. During that stretch, Romney’s support has been between 46% and 49% every day. See tracking history.
Most voters have not yet felt any personal impact from the president’s health care law. Overall, 15% have been helped by the law and 25% have been hurt. As they have consistently for years, most Americans believe cost control should be the top priority for health care reform. Only 23% rate providing coverage for the uninsured as most important.
There is a high level concern about violence in video games, movies, and TV. Most believe violence in entertainment leads to more violence in society. However, by a 58% to 31% margin, Americans believe protecting freedom of speech is more important than limiting media violence.
Republicans hold a three-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot. This lead is a bit smaller than the Republicans enjoyed in 2010.
Despite the continuing violence in Syria, most voters still want the United States to stay uninvolved. Just 21% support providing military assistance.
(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).
Fifty-five percent (55%) favor repeal of the president’s health care law.
Just 14% believe that today’s children will be better off than their parents. That’s the lowest level of optimism ever measured.
In his weekly newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen concludes that for Obama to win, “he will need to improve his own job approval rating between now and Election Day. For that to happen, perceptions of the economy will have to reverse their current downward trend.” If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections show Obama likely to win states with 201 Electoral College Votes while Romney is likely to win in states with 170. States with 167 Electoral College Votes are either Toss-Ups or Leaners.
The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power ratings suggest that the Republicans are likely to end up with 48 Senate seats while the Democrats are likely to have 47. Five races are pure Toss-Ups.
(Approval Index data below)
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18 (see trends).
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(More below)
Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV show--What America Thinks --is scheduled for launch in September 2012.
Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
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