People, 2012 begins today

Bye-bye, post Osama Bin Laden bounce.

The most recent Washington Post-ABC poll tells us what anyone with any intelligence could have predicted. Obama’s 10 point or so bounce from the assassination of Bin Laden has quickly dissipated.

Why? Simple. It’s the economy, stupid.

By 2 to 1, Americans say the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, and nine in 10 continue to rate the economy in negative terms. Nearly six in 10 say the economy has not started to recover, regardless of what official statistics may say, and most of those who say it has improved rate the recovery as weak.

The best news from this poll has to be for Mitt Romney. Obama and Romney are tied at 47 percent apiece in among all inviduals. Among registered voters, Romney is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Romney enjoys a 50-43 percent lead among independent voters.

The news was the opposite for Sarah Palin, who appears to be losing ground. Almost two-thirds of all Americans say they “definitely would not” vote for Palin for president. She is predictably unpopular with Democrats and most independents, but the new survey underscores the hurdles she would face if she became a candidate: 42 percent of Republicans say they’ve ruled out supporting her candidacy.

There is an important take home point in this poll however. It is simple: a generic Republican can defeat Barack Obama. There is nothing special about Romney, other than he is better known than virtually everyone running other than Gov. Palin. His besting of Obama before he has had a chance to campaign gives us a clear insight to the disfavor that many Americans hold the President in.

More importantly, it gives Republicans a clear roadmap to electoral victory: It is the economy. Economy. Economy.

Charlie Cook has an interesting piece today called ‘Owning It’. He makes a point by point argument for why the Democrats are stuck with owning this economy, for good or ill. With job numbers like those released last week, that is an albatross that will be difficult to escape from.

Republicans can talk about the issues that are close to their hearts all they want. And I am sure the nomination process will discuss every issue imaginable. But ultimately, the Republicans must have a clear vision for a future America after Barack Obama. A pro-growth policy, with a reformed tax code, entitlement reform, and more sensible regulatory policy would go a long way to loosen up the approximately $2 trillion in cash that big businesses are holding on the sideline today, not to mention the almost $6 trillion in cash held by individuals. Releasing this capital, and putting it to use in a growing vibrant economy should be the core to any conservative economic policy.

In turn, demonstrating Mr. Obama’s policies ability to stifle the flow of this capital, and thus freeze job creation nationwide, should be job #1 for every Republican in a race.

So, it is time to focus. The 2012 race has basically started. And it is about one thing: it is the economy, stupid.