There’s a whole lot of Tea going on in Iowa. Sarah Palin (15%), Herman Cain (15%), and Michele Bachmann (11%) combine for a strong 41% of the primary vote in Iowa, according to PPP. Mitt Romney led those three with 21%. Tim Pawlenty (10%), and Huntsman (0%) rounded out the Estab Fave trifecta with 31% total. So, to keep track here: Unserious candidates, 41%. “Serious” candidates: 31%. Just checking… Ron Paul (8%) and Gingrich (12%) came in for the will-they-ever-go-away crowd at 20%.
The question is, will one of the Tea candidates break away and be able to surpass Romney in a state he shouldn’t win?
The numbers:
Palin: Almost double her last showing in Iowa, Palin has continued the recent trend of finishing second to Romney, who is benefiting from being the only establishment candidate with much traction, as the tea party has continued it’s 2009/2010 strong trend. She has the highest favorable rating of any candidate at 59%, and her unfavorable ratings are all lower than those of Gingrich and Romney. The real good news for Palin, though, is that the most active part of the GOP right now (self described Tea-Party members) give Palin a very high 71% favorable. This can come in very handy in a state like Iowa where they use a caucus system. Among tea Party members, Palin would lead Romney 21%-14%
Cain: The great news for Cain is he is tied with Palin for 2nd place. The bad news is, if Palin does not run, he only picks up 1 point from her absence while Romney gains 5 points, and Bachmann, Paul, and Gingrich take in 3 apiece. Without Palin, Cain’s 2nd place finish is 10 points back. You would think Cain might be a natural 2nd choice for Palin supporters, but he only bests Pawlenty’s gain of her share, which is 0%. Cain also seems to have a love-hate thing going on right now, as he stands at only +14 net favorable with 38%F and 24%U.
Romney: Almost by default, Romney leads the pack with a handful of Tea Party candidates trailing closely behind. His favorable rating is a low +17 with 51% saying Aye, and 34% saying Nay.But he stands at just 45% fav, 41% unfav with Tea-Party folks, who make upo 1/3 of Iowa voters. Could hurt in Caucus system.
Bachmann: The girl from Iowa is strong in polling here, and her net favorability is sky-high at +37. But even with Palin out, she falls double digits behind Romney. Conservatives will need to figure all of this out. But she ties Palin with a GOP high 71% fav among Tea Party folks.
No comments:
Post a Comment