Political News & Views: Even with Obamanomic's bogus measuring stick, R.I. unemployment figure for December is adjusted up to 9.3 percent, still worst in nation

Friday, February 28, 2014

Even with Obamanomic's bogus measuring stick, R.I. unemployment figure for December is adjusted up to 9.3 percent, still worst in nation

02/28/2014

Rhode Island ended 2013 with a higher unemployment rate, fewer people working and a smaller labor force than previously indicated, according to data released Thursday by the Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training.

The unemployment rate of 9.3 percent in December was higher than the 9.1 percent previously reported, according to an annual revision that’s conducted each year at this time by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest figures show the unemployment rate for Rhode Island was actually higher than earlier reports indicated for each month of 2013 except last January.

“The recovery here is frustratingly slow in Rhode Island,” DLT Director Charles J. Fogarty said. “While the unemployment rate is down from 11.4 percent in January 2011, it’s still much, much too high. … No one here is happy about the high unemployment rate. Period. There’s no getting around that.”

The one bright spot in an otherwise dismal revised report for last year is the number of jobs here in the state.

The number of jobs in December was actually 473,00 instead of 471,800, an increase of 1,200 more jobs than previously reported. But that’s based on numbers that aren’t seasonally adjusted. Economists typically prefer to use seasonally adjusted figures because they smooth out the differences from one season to the next.

That’s because states have seasonal patterns, and the unadjusted numbers might show more fluctuation than the adjusted numbers, said BLS economist Nicholas Aakre in Washington, D.C.

The state has not yet released seasonally adjusted jobs figures for each month in 2013 because it’s not authorized by the federal bureau to do so, Fogarty said. Those figures should be released by the state next Thursday, Fogarty said.

Before these revisions, federal data showed Rhode Island had the worst unemployment rate in the country, 9.1 percent in December, compared with Nevada’s 8.8 percent.

But it’s now unclear how Rhode Island fares among other states because not all states release their revised figures on the same day. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the 2013 average annual unemployment rates for all 50 states Friday morning.

The revised data show more details about Rhode Island’s economy in 2013, which was weaker than previously reported:

The year kicked off with an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent in January and hovered between 9.6 percent and 9.5 percent through September before falling to 9.4 percent and eventually 9.3 percent in December.

Except for January, the number of unemployed Rhode Islanders was higher in each month than previously reported, with the year ending with 51,100 Rhode Islanders who told the government they were out of work and looking for a job, compared with an earlier number of 49,900.

Fewer Rhode Islanders were employed each month last year than previously reported, and December was the worst month, with 499,100 people counted as employed, compared with the earlier figure of 500,700.

The size of the state’s labor force shrank to 550,100 for December, down from 560,000 in January. The final month recorded a smaller labor force than the 550,500 reported earlier.

“Of course it’s not good for the economy, and it definitely has an impact in terms of moving the state forward,” said Edward M. Mazze, a University of Rhode Island business professor, about the revised employment data. “Companies looking to expand in Rhode Island and companies that may be considering Rhode Island … are really in a situation where none of the indicators — in spite of all the jargon — none of the indicators really show that the state is moving forward.”

Additionally, the state must contend with three other factors that don’t show up in the monthly jobs reports, Mazze said. That’s people who are under-employed, who would work more hours if they could; people who have simply dropped out of the labor force and may be difficult to count, particularly if they live in a household with another working Rhode Islander; and immigration issues and the number of undocumented workers here.

“You start adding those three, and 9.3 percent may basically explain one-third of what the number really should be,” Mazze said. “The [unemployment rate] really may be 27 percent.”

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