Monday, February 16, 2015

Theory on the Pause – climate science has ‘exhausted adjustment rationales’


Global Warming is real and is definitely caused by human-produced carbon . . . pencil lead, that is.

Guest essay by Ralph Park

Global Warming Theory –

An impressive collection of climate scientists and media / public figures are convinced that global warming is a very real threat. The theory originates in sophisticated climate models that demonstrate rising temperatures driven by rising concentrations of CO2. This theory has been confirmed in observational data from instrumental sources which is presented as “anomaly” data for adjusted surface temperatures. The sudden emergence of an unusual pattern of warming is alarming and coincides with the rapid growth of greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO2, from fossil fuel burning human activities. This is considered as confirmation that humans are causing global warming.


Figure 1 – Comparison of raw and adjusted Tmax Variations
Figure 1 reproduces the global warming effect from adjusted Tmax data from the US Historical Climatology Network (US HCN). Adjusted Tmax data can be compared directly with raw (unadjusted) field measurement data. While a distinct warming effect is clearly evident after 1975, no such trend is present in the raw field data. In fact, the variation pattern in raw Tmax is unremarkable, featuring irregular minor variations about the zero temperature change axis.

As Figure 1 makes clear, adjustments are the dominant factor in the global warming trend. Adjustments are easily separated by calculating the difference between the adjusted and raw datasets:

{Adj(Stn,Yr)} = {Tmax(Stn,Yr)_adj} – {Tmax(Stn,Yr)_raw} (**)

Stn refers to station ID and
Yr refers to the year

Figure 2 illustrates the average adjustment bias incorporated into the data. The warming pattern is clearly evident in the pattern of adjustments..


Figure 2 – Adjustment Bias to US HCN Tmax Data

The adjustments constitute a cooling bias applied to past temperatures. The adjustments are then slowly removed, starting in the 1970s. The obvious intent of adjustments is to create the illusion of a dramatic global warming signal in recent times. The sudden warming coincides with the public alarm over rising CO2 levels. Figure 2 displays the net effect of the adjustment process which is sculpt measurement data to conform with global warming alarm. Statistical profiles for the 1930s and 1990s, Figure 3, demonstrate that the net bias is the result of a sophisticated algorithm designed to disguise systematic bias as a natural phenomena. The net effect is a non-random sculpting of temperatures to show a strong global warming trend.


Figure 3 – Sample Adjustment Statistical patterns.
The “Pause” Dilemma

Those of us in the skeptic / non-official science community always thought the adjustments were misguided and scientifically inappropriate. But we never suspected a purposeful effort to manufacture global warming by adroit use of adjustment algorithms. Nevertheless, we now know that global warming is, indeed, human caused by carbon based pencil lead – figuratively speaking, of course. It is based on sophisticated algorithms that artfully sculpt the datasets to fit the theory. As demonstrated, now, global warming confirmation in US HCN data is purely an artifact of the adjustment algorithms.

This, of course, is not proof that all other official data sources are so flagrantly falsified. However, the US HCN sufficiently extensive and credible enough to demonstrate that global warming is not in evidence for the US continent. It would be difficult to sustain a valid scientific argument for global warming when one of the major continents shows no sign of it.

The problem with the adjustment trick is that a real global warming trend might not happen. That means the removal of the artificial adjustments leads to a future dilemma. If raw Tmax data continues to be unremarkably flat, then discontinuing the biasing results in a global warming pause. Continuing the biasing, on the other hand, would lead to a widening gap over reality that risks penetrating into public awareness.

Pause Theory

So, the best fit “pause” theory is that climate science has temporarily exhausted adjustment rationales. Given the past success in convincing the public, it is quite possible that the official science will simply continue the adjustment process.
(**) {Adj(Stn,Yr)} data includes only matching records in both datasets. It does not include “ghost” records that are not in the raw dataset.


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