Poll numbers in U.S. Senate race

03/17/2014

The latest Rasmussen Poll provides a snapshot of the upcoming U.S. Senate race between Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito and Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.

The numbers:

–The horse race number has Capito with 49 percent, Tennant at 35 percent and 16 percent either favoring another candidate or undecided. A 14 point lead is sizable, but its meaning is diminished when you factor in that the campaign really hasn’t begun. Additionally, Capito is close, but still short of the magic 51 percent.

–Tennant has an advantage with young voters. The Rasmussen poll shows 43 percent of voters 18-39 support her, while 36 percent back Capito.  However, Capito is more popular with voters 40 to 64 (52 percent to 32 percent) and voters 65 and older (59 percent to 33 percent). Bottom line: that’s a significant advantage for Capito because West Virginia has an older population and older voters are more likely to cast ballots.

–As you would expect, the strongest support for Capito and Tennant comes from voters in their respective parties. 77 percent of Republicans back Capito, while only eight percent support Tennant.  62 percent of Democrats back Tennant, while 26 percent support Capito. Remember, however, that Tennant’s percentage, although smaller, may translate into more votes because Democrats have a significant advantage in registration. (In the 2010 General Election, 295,000 Democrats voted, compared with 182,000 Republicans.)

–More independent voters favor Capito. 46 percent say they support her and 28 percent are for Tennant.  There’s some room for movement here, however, since 22 percent of the independents are not sure yet who they would vote for.  Independents are growing in significance.  In the 2010 General Election, 49,000 votes were cast by those with no party affiliation.

–Liberal voters (74 percent) say they back Tennant, while conservatives (70 percent) support Capito.  But, again, context is important because West Virginia is a conservative state.  Tennant has a slight edge (42 percent to 39 percent) with voters who identify themselves as moderates.

–Tennant’s big problem is with President Obama and the Affordable Care Act. Both are unpopular.  55 percent of all West Virginia voters strongly disapprove of the President, while that same percentage of voters also has a very unfavorable opinion of Obamacare.  Tennant campaigns as an independent Democrat who likes some, but not all, aspects of the health care law.  It’s a narrow needle to thread, especially as the campaign heats up.

–Capito has an advantage in the favorable-to-unfavorable ratio.  60 percent of likely voters have a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of her, while 28 percent have a somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view.  Tennant’s ratio is much closer, 44 percent to 38 percent.   However, Tennant has more room to move since 19 percent are not sure or have never heard of her, while only 13 percent are unfamiliar with Capito.

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